CAC 40 Gains While Markets Stay Uncertain
The CAC40 cash index finished the day higher, up 0.53% to 8,114.84 points, with a large trading volume of €5.925 bn. Over the past week the index fell 0.53%.
The Paris market ended the week on a shaky note. Several things made investors nervous: ongoing fights in the Middle East, many company earnings reports, and mixed messages from central banks.
For more than two months, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has limited oil and gas shipments, pushing energy prices higher. Brent crude broke $124 a barrel, the highest level since the war in Ukraine began.
The U.S. Federal Reserve left its interest rates unchanged but showed clear splits among its members – the first disagreement since 1992. The vote reflected uncertainty about inflation, especially energy‑related price rises.
In Europe, the economy is slowing down. Growth was only 0.1% in the first quarter, while inflation stayed near 3% because of high energy costs. The European Central Bank (ECB) also kept rates steady, saying it still lacks clear data.
By contrast, the U.S. economy looks a bit stronger, growing around 2% and seeing core inflation close to the 3.2% target.
The ECB may raise rates as early as June if energy, transport and supply‑chain pressures do not ease.
Future May Contract Levels
Resistance points: 8,067.5 – 8,093 – 8,115 – 8,176.5 – 8,209.5 – 8,260.5 – 8,332 – 8,475 – 8,652.5
Support points: 8,035 – 7,984 – 7,961 – 7,834 – 7,719 – 7,669 – 7,540.5
During the day, the market looks bearish if it stays below 8,138 points.
Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 future (14‑hour data) is still under pressure. It opened lower, then climbed back above a horizontal line at 7,932 points, but the bounce was not strong enough to change the overall downtrend that started after the April 17 peak.
To turn positive, the index needs to break and stay above the resistance zone formed by the 200‑day and 20‑day moving averages, roughly between 8,093 and 8,122 points. That could restart an uptrend and aim for the lower edge of the long‑term upward channel at 8,209.5 points.
Going further, a move above the April 17 high of 8,365.5 points would open the path toward historic highs.
Indicators show weak momentum: the MACD histogram is near the bottom of its range, and the RSI is close to oversold territory. Trading volume is lower than last week, except for today’s session, which saw a modest increase.
If the CAC 40 falls back below the 7,932‑point support and breaks the critical 7,873‑point level, a new correction could begin, targeting a range between 7,640 and 7,600 points based on the Wolfe wave pattern identified on April 21.
Bottom Line
Ongoing Middle‑East negotiations keep oil prices high, which continues to weigh on markets. We stay cautious, keeping portfolios less exposed and using hedges that already lock in some gains. Any increase in exposure to specific stocks will only happen when clear, confirmed chart signals appear. Our risk‑management tools remain active to adjust market exposure as conditions change.