The Paris exchange continued its modest recovery during the second‑to‑last trading day of 2025, yet activity remained muted and investors stayed cautious. A pre‑emptive early close at 2 p.m. tomorrow pushed market participants to adopt a defensive stance.
With no fresh catalyst on the horizon, traders limited their exposure. Recent data from the United States and Asia had already been priced in, leaving little room for surprise. Geopolitically, attention lingered on Moscow’s claim that Kyiv launched a drone strike on President Vladimir Putin’s residence – a charge swiftly denied by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who labeled it an attempt to undermine ongoing diplomatic talks.
Markets also awaited the Federal Reserve’s post‑meeting minutes, which could clarify the trajectory of monetary policy after three consecutive rate cuts.
Future CAC 40 – January Outlook
Key resistance levels: 8 177.5, 8 193, 8 218, 8 285.5, 8 329.5, 8 408.5.
Major support zones: 8 169, 8 146, 8 134, 8 106, 8 090, 8 055.5, 7 991, 7 926.5, 7 910.5, 7 897, 7 859, 7 830, 7 765.
Intraday bias: Positive when the index trades above 8 121 points.
Technically, the CAC 40 future (14 h data) broke upward through the upper bound of its four‑week trading range, hinting at a bullish turn. For the rally to gain credibility, the index must hold above this newly‑formed support for at least two to three consecutive sessions. If successful, the next logical target would sit near 8 282 points, after clearing intermediate hurdles around 8 201 and 8 234.
Momentum indicators still show a mildly positive bias. The MACD histogram is edging toward the top of its channel, and the RSI follows suit, while trading volumes stay thin, reflecting limited conviction.
Bearish scenario: A dip below 8 169, followed by a close under the 8 146/8 134 zone, would undermine the current uplift. Should the median of the range (8 106) be breached, nearer supports at 8 090 and 8 067 could trigger a short‑term bounce. A decisive break under 8 043 – the lower boundary of the range – would act as a strong negative trigger.
In summary, the short‑term bullish reactivation supports our decision to add to the “Dynamic” and “Investor” portfolios, aiming for the longer‑term upside target of roughly 8 282 points. Nonetheless, ongoing uncertainty around future U.S. and Euro‑area rate paths urges us to stay prudent beyond that level and remain ready to adapt if market conditions deteriorate.