CAC 40 Cash Session Closes Lower
The CAC 40 cash market ended the day down 0.23% at 8,149.15 points, with a turnover of €837 million.
The year finished quietly after a shortened session for New Year’s Eve. Despite the calm, the CAC 40 posted a solid 10.42% gain for the 2025 calendar year.
On the global stage, the MSCI All‑Country World Index rallied 21% year‑to‑date, buoyed by Federal Reserve rate cuts and a surge of interest in artificial‑intelligence technologies.
In the United States, the Fed’s latest minutes suggest that upcoming rate reductions could become a topic of vigorous debate. Diverging views on the trade‑off between inflation and unemployment are slowing consensus, even as Chair Jerome Powell’s influence remains strong. A potential shift in monetary policy could appear as early as May if a new leader, expected to be appointed by the incoming administration, takes the helm.
China delivered a pleasant surprise: factory activity in December rose unexpectedly, pushing the official manufacturing PMI to 50.1 – just above the expansion threshold. The services sector also returned to growth, according to the national statistics office.
January Futures Outlook
Key resistance levels: 8,169 – 8,177.5, 8,193, 8,218, 8,285.5, 8,329.5, 8,408.5
Key support levels: 8,146, 8,134, 8,106, 8,090, 8,055.5, 7,991, 7,926.5, 7,910.5, 7,897, 7,859, 7,830, 7,765
Intraday bias remains positive as long as the price stays above 8,148 points.
Technical Perspective
The 14:00 snapshot of the CAC 40 future did not confirm the short‑term bullish push sparked on Tuesday. Weak investor participation and the absence of a clear catalyst prevented the market from breaking above the upper bound of the current trading range, which has persisted for roughly four weeks.
For the index to challenge its 2025 highs—or even set new records—a sustained breakout above 8,169 points, confirmed over at least three consecutive sessions, will be essential.
Momentum indicators have turned only mildly positive in recent days. The MACD histogram is crossing back toward the zero line, the RSI is edging higher, but trading volumes remain thin, reflecting lingering market uncertainty.
Conversely, a dip below the mid‑range level of 8,106 points would keep the index trapped in a horizontal consolidation zone between roughly 8,169 and 8,043 points. A decisive break of the lower bound would act as a bearish accelerator.
Bottom Line
To envision fresh peaks, the market needs a clear bullish reactivation. Until the consolidation phase dissolves, a cautious stance is advisable, though selective long‑positions may still be entertained when opportunities arise. We remain vigilant, ready to adapt our strategy should market conditions deteriorate.
