CAC 40 End‑Of‑Year Snapshot
After a long holiday break, Paris‑based equities resumed trading in a calm fashion, ending the final week of the year with the CAC 40 cash index ticking higher by 0.10% to close at 8,112.02 points. The session saw a turnover of approximately €2.31 billion.
Market participants highlighted two main themes: a possible peace settlement in Ukraine and historic peaks for precious metals. Silver broke the $80 per ounce barrier, peaking near $84 before investors started taking profits.
The metal rally is underpinned by solid industrial demand—energy‑transition projects, AI‑driven data centers and a broad spectrum of electronics—combined with tight physical inventories.
Looking ahead, analysts are eyeing a more favourable macro environment by 2026, anticipating lower interest rates and a potentially weaker U.S. dollar. Both factors could provide further fuel for commodity‑linked stocks.
In the coming days, the release of the Federal Reserve’s December minutes will be crucial, as market players try to gauge the timing of any future monetary easing.
Geopolitical headlines remain in the background. In China, defense‑sector shares rose after the announcement of military exercises near Taiwan, keeping a risk premium alive across Asian markets.
Future Contract – January Outlook
Key resistance levels: 8,150 – 8,169 – 8,177.5 – 8,193 – 8,218 – 8,285.5 – 8,329.5 – 8,408.5.
Key support levels: 8,106 – 8,090 – 8,055.5 – 7,991 – 7,926.5 – 7,910.5 – 7,897 – 7,859 – 7,830 – 7,765.
The intraday bias stays bearish until the index breaches the 8,146‑point mark.
Technically, the January future continues to oscillate within a trading range bounded by 8,169 and 8,043 points—a range that has persisted since late November. The median of this band sits at roughly 8,106 points, acting as a pivot: prices above suggest a constructive outlook, while values below signal caution.
The 20‑period and 50‑period moving averages (14‑hour data) sit near 8,126 and 8,101 points, respectively, framing the current neutral zone. A decisive close above 8,169 points would be required to spark a clear directional move.
Momentum indicators are flat: the MACD histogram hovers around zero, the RSI is near its mid‑range, and trading volumes remain low, reflecting limited conviction among participants.
Conversely, a close beneath the 8,106–8,090 zone would erode the upward bias, especially if the index slips below the lower band of 8,067–8,043 points—levels not seen since November 25.
Bottom line: With the market lacking a decisive trend, we recommend a cautious stance. Monitoring upcoming macro data and Fed commentary will be essential before adjusting exposure, whether to increase positioning in dynamic portfolios or to tighten risk controls.