Market Summary
The CAC 40 cash index ended the day down 0.87% at 7,701.95 points, with a turnover of €4.26 billion. Over the week it was up 0.47%.
Paris traders were careful today. The main worry is the tension around Iran’s energy infrastructure. Oil prices stayed above $110 per barrel, reflecting both the geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about global supply. Washington delayed possible strikes for ten days, giving the market a short pause, while Tehran kept its demands on the Strait of Hormuz.
On the macro side, the OECD cut its inflation forecast for G20 countries to 4%, suggesting that central banks may keep tightening worldwide. U.S. 30‑year Treasury yields are near 5%, showing that inflation and higher government spending are still pressing on markets.
Future April Levels
Resistance points (where price may turn lower): 7,746; 7,790.5; 7,811; 7,825.5; 7,838.5; 7,865.5; 7,886; 7,903.5; 7,927; 7,949.5; 7,979; 8,030.5; 8,053.5; 8,070.5; 8,109.5; 8,138.5; 8,159.5; 8,178.5; 8,192.5; 8,247; 8,270; 8,283.5; 8,341.5; 8,420.5.
Support points (where price may bounce up): 7,709; 7,685.5; 7,626; 7,606; 7,579; 7,477; 7,328.5; 7,200; 7,092.5; 7,466.5; 7,330; 7,164.
Intraday trend: The market is trending upward as long as it stays above 7,838.5.
Technical View
The CAC 40 future is now moving inside a sideways trading range between 7,685.5 and 7,886 points. A bullish reversal pattern appeared near the recent lows, giving buyers a small boost. If the price breaks the upper side of this zone, the next short‑term target is 8,053.5 points. Passing that level and re‑entering the longer‑term upward channel would be a positive sign, opening the way to the next gaps at around 8,391 and 8,549.5 points.
On the flip side, a break below the major support at 7,685.5 points would signal that the current bounce is losing strength. A fall through 7,477 points could lead the market toward the “neckline” of a triple‑top pattern formed since May 2024, located near 7,092.5 points. As long as this support holds, the long‑term bias stays neutral. If it fails, a bearish signal could target a theoretical low around 5,850 points.
Risk Outlook
We are waiting for a clear directional cue, likely tied to a geopolitical catalyst. For now, portfolios stay tilted toward a continued rebound, but risk management remains strict. If any major technical level is breached, we would cut exposure and consider protective strategies to keep capital safe.
