Market Summary
The CAC 40 cash index finished the session down 0.37%, settling at 8,121.07 points on modest trading volume of €2.27 bn.
Paris’s equity market ended on the downside, reflecting lingering hesitation as political developments in France add fresh uncertainty. Investors are still waiting for a special budget‑continuity law – similar to last year’s measure – before parliamentary debates resume in early 2026. The lingering risk has kept bond yields firm; the benchmark 10‑year French OAT stays above 3.60%.
Key Movers
Danone slipped 1.33% to €76.98 after Beijing announced provisional dairy duties ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% on certain EU imports, effective Dec 23. Meanwhile, Stellantis pulled the index lower, dropping 4.53% to €9.45. In a candid interview with the Financial Times, CEO Antonio Filosa slammed the EU’s new automotive plan as overly cautious and out‑of‑step with market realities.
January Futures Outlook
Resistance levels: 8,157.5 – 8,177.5 – 8,193 – 8,218 – 8,285.5 – 8,329.5 – 8,408.5
Support levels: 8,143 – 8,117 – 8,055.5 – 7,991 – 7,926.5 – 7,910.5 – 7,897 – 7,859 – 7,830 – 7,800 – 7,765.5 – 7,730 – 7,665
Intraday bias remains bearish until the index breaches the 8,150‑point mark.
Technical Snapshot
Graphically, the CAC 40 future (14:00 data) still shows a constructive medium‑term shape, trading above the pivotal 8,055.5‑point threshold but within a narrow 2% range due to thin volumes. Since 25 Nov 2025 the market has been stuck in a well‑defined trading range. A close above the upper bound of 8,157.5 points would be the first bullish signal.
For a sustained rally, buyers need to push the price past the major resistances at 8,218 and 8,285.5 points. Three consecutive closes beyond 8,285.5 would open the path toward the next ceiling at 8,408.5 points.
Conversely, slipping below 8,055.5 would erode short‑term bullish momentum and could trigger a pull‑back toward the first support around 7,991 points, with the long‑term upward channel anchored near 7,950 points.
If the price falls beneath the lower range boundary, the next technical target would be the short‑term alert zone at 7,830 points. Maintaining above this level keeps the long‑term uptrend intact; a breach would likely drive the index back toward the historic median of the range at 7,765.5 points, a zone that saw consolidation from May to Oct 2025.
Indicator Check
The index trades beneath its 20‑, 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages. The MACD histogram is descending but stays in positive territory above the signal line. The RSI hovers in a neutral zone, while trading volume has tapered off compared with the previous session.
Outlook & Strategy
We are looking for a decisive close above the 8,157.5‑point resistance to confirm a stronger bullish bias, whether through direct equity exposure or upward‑biased derivatives. Until then, a selective stock‑picking approach remains prudent, with close monitoring of political headlines and trade‑policy developments that could shift market sentiment.
