The week just ended with big headlines on Wall Street. The Federal Reserve meeting and big‑tech earnings often set the tone for the rest of the quarter. Investors are watching closely as July wraps up.
Tech giants are moving in different directions. Microsoft is down about 31% from its record high. Meta has slipped 24%. Amazon is 16% lower. Apple stays near its all‑time highs. This focus on AI spending and strategy also affected Alphabet and Tesla last week.
The Fed’s new chair now faces his first real test. Bond traders are hinting at a 0.25% rate hike. Short‑term yields are rising, while longer‑term rates could climb if the Fed decides to act aggressively. All eyes are on the market from Tuesday to Thursday.
Rapid Fall for SpaceX
SpaceX (ticker SPCX) has been on a steep slide. After three weeks of big drops—10%, 15% and 7%—the stock opened flat on July 27. The company will report its second‑quarter results on August 4, and the bears are still in charge.
With a market cap of about $1.5 trillion, the aerospace firm shows huge implied volatility—over 110%. Options traders expect a swing of roughly $24 up or down by the Friday after earnings, which is about a 20% move.
What IPO History Shows
Past IPOs give a clue about where SPCX might head. Research shows that new‑stock companies often lose about 55% of their value after the debut. For SpaceX, that suggests a target around $102 per share. The stock has already touched $110.85, a 51% drop from its June 16 peak.
Long‑term investors may want to keep cash ready before the earnings announcement.
Feelings about founder Elon Musk should stay out of the trade decision. Both SpaceX and Tesla shares have dropped sharply, and Musk’s net worth fell by more than $600 billion.
Momentum Still Favors the Bears
Technical charts show the bears in charge. On a 15‑minute chart, the 200‑period moving average is falling. The price must break above $120 to give the bulls a chance. Resistance appears near $130 and $145, with a strong Fibonacci level at $155.
Volume is heavy between $147 and $172, a zone where early buyers might sell to break even. The original $135 IPO price did not act as a strong floor during the recent decline.
Can Earnings Change the Story?
History suggests a bottom could be near, but swing traders need more technical signs before taking a long position. The August 4 earnings report could either spark a bounce or confirm the downtrend.
Analysts point out a high valuation and a large share unlock in the coming months. Those factors are already priced in, but they add risk for a long‑term play.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX’s stock is roughly half of its June high. For long‑term investors, IPO data hints a bottom may be close. Traders, however, should wait for a clear technical reversal before betting on a rise.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always evaluate your own situation or consult a professional before investing.
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