The CAC40 cash index closed down 0.98% at 7,769.31 points, with a heavy trading volume of €4.429 billion.
The Paris market slipped after three days of gains. The drop is linked to growing worries about Iran. Even though Tehran answered a cease‑fire plan, the tone stays firm. No details are known about Iran’s counter‑offer, but the fact that talks are open is a small positive sign.
In the United States, the countdown to a possible new air strike is now about 48 hours. This tension helped push oil higher. Brent crude, which had fallen to $96 a barrel, climbed back toward $108 and is on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1990.
At the same time, US 10‑year Treasury yields rose to around 4.40%. The OECD also lifted its inflation forecasts for the major economies, while still expecting modest global growth. The organization warned that the conflict could hurt economic outlooks.
April Futures Outlook
Resistance levels: 7,807 – 7,836 – 7,874 – 7,930 – 7,998 – 8,050 – 8,062 – 8,131 – 8,190 – 8,215 – 8,278 – 8,303 – 8,338 – 8,366 – 8,423 – 8,551.
Support levels: 7,769 – 7,712 – 7,615 – 7,558 – 7,532 – 7,399.
For the day, the market shows an upward bias when it stays above 7,728 points.
Technical View (14‑hour data)
After a strong bounce on March 23 and an opening gap up on March 25, the index hit the intraday resistance at 7,890 points – the same area as the 20‑period moving average. That average has not been broken since the March 2 rally, which weakens short‑term momentum.
The recent pull‑back looks logical because there is no clear technical catalyst for a bigger bounce. Still, the March 23 recovery could continue if more constructive signals appear.
To move higher, the market first needs to fill the gap left on March 20, which sits between 7,887.95 and 7,944.34 points on the cash market. After that, it must stay firmly above the resistance zone of 8,047 – 8,070 points.
If the index can re‑enter the long‑term upward channel broken on March 5, that would be a strong sign of improved visibility and could trigger a larger, more credible rally.
Indicators show mixed messages: the MACD histogram is still trying to turn positive, while the RSI is slow to climb, indicating a fragile momentum. Trading volume is also lower than the previous week, suggesting limited investor commitment.
Risk scenario: Falling back below the intraday alert level of 7,769.5 points would weaken the current trend. A move toward the March 24 low of 7,663.5 points could follow, and if that low is broken, the index might slide toward a major support zone between 7,230 and 7,100 points, near the “neckline” of the recent triple‑top pattern.
In summary, after reaching a key support on the CAC 40, we have reinforced both the Investor and Dynamic portfolios. A confirmed bounce will let us increase positions gradually, but we stay watchful for any shift toward a less favorable market direction.
