CAC 40 closes lower amid luxury slump and monetary‑policy uncertainty
The CAC 40 cash index ended the session down 1.06%, finishing at 8,066.68 points with a turnover of €4.35 bn.
The Paris market slipped sharply after luxury giant LVMH reported weaker‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter results. With luxury stocks representing roughly 35 % of the CAC 40, the disappointment pulled the whole index down.
Beyond the sector‑specific hit, traders remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for 20:00 GMT. Most analysts expect the Fed to keep rates steady after three consecutive cuts, shifting the discussion toward the timing of any future easing.
Economists also warn that, unless the labour market shows a clearer slowdown, another rate reduction before mid‑year looks unlikely. Meanwhile, Wall Street earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Tesla are set to add further volatility.
On the currency front, the U.S. dollar weakened after recent statements from former President Donald Trump, a move that helped push gold higher.
February CAC 40 futures: key technical levels
Resistance zones: 8,096 – 8,116.5, 8,129 – 8,140, 8,169 – 8,188.5, 8,216 – 8,246, 8,310.5, 8,469.5, 8,672, 8,896, 9,188, 8,374.
Support zones: 8,035 – 7,995, 7,917, 7,867.5 – 7,817.5, 7,770, 7,606.5 – 7,548, 7,456.5 – 7,303.5, 7,134.5, 6,910.
Intraday bias remains bearish below the 8,133‑point threshold.
Chart commentary
The 14‑hour future chart shows the index failing to sustain the technical bounce observed after the January 19 rally. A bearish gap opened the session between 8,117.58 and 8,112.50 points, breaking the lower bound of the five‑day trading range (8,204.5 – 8,108.5).
Following the breakout, the price quickly pierced the first supports at 8,096 and 8,087 points before stabilising near a more considerable base around 8,035 points.
Indicator snapshot
MACD histograms are turning positive, hinting at a possible reversal, while the RSI is edging into oversold territory, confirming selling pressure. Trading volume stayed above the recent average, underscoring the strength of the move.
What could trigger a swing back?
If the index drops below the session low of 8,033 points, a short‑term consolidation may re‑emerge, targeting the lower edge of the long‑term upward channel and the medium‑term alert zone around 8,004 points. That level held firm in late January and could act as a catalyst for a bounce.
As long as the 8,004‑point floor holds, the medium‑to‑long‑term bullish outlook remains intact.
Bottom line
We continue to monitor for a decisive market move. A clearer uptrend could justify a gradual increase in dynamic and investor‑focused portfolios, whereas a breach of key support levels would prompt defensive positioning and risk‑mitigation measures.