CAC 40 Ends Slightly Lower on a Busy Trading Day
The French CAC 40 cash index slipped 0.02% to finish at 8,179.5 points, with a hefty turnover of €4.38 bn.
Paris’s equity market turned negative despite opening in positive territory. The broader geopolitical backdrop looked a bit more optimistic, as Iran and the United States signaled a willingness to dialogue. In the United States, former President Donald Trump announced a new trade pact with India that would lower American tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, while New Delhi agreed to ease commercial barriers and pause purchases of Russian oil.
Company‑specific moves drove the index lower. Publicis fell 9.2% to €78.40, and Capgemini dropped 9.2% to €121.95 after the firm issued cautious 2026 guidance and announced the sale of a subsidiary tied to a U.S. anti‑immigration agency. In contrast, Danone rose 1.9% to €70.28, leading the index’s gains after recent infant‑formula product recalls.
Future Contract – February Outlook
Resistance levels: 8,311 → 8,338 → 8,399.5 → 8,470.
Support levels: 8,274.5 → 8,247 → 8,216 → 8,182 → 8,116 → 8,045.5 → 8,014.5 → 7,963 → 7,904.
The intraday bias remains bearish below 8,205 points.
Chart Pattern Highlights
At 14:00 GMT, the CAC 40 futures chart filled the January 19 down‑gap, indicating renewed buying pressure. A Japanese‑style hammer candle formed at the bottom of a corrective sequence, a classic reversal signal that suggests sellers have been exhausted and prices may be stabilising near equilibrium.
If the next candles close above the hammer’s high and volumes pick up, the pattern gains credibility. A confirmed break above the 8,182‑point pivot, ideally confirmed by three successive close‑overs or a volume surge, could reactivate the primary uptrend, aiming first for 8,247 points. Holding above that would reinforce a bullish continuation and open the road toward the next resistance zones at 8,311 and 8,338 points.
What If the Index Stalls?
Should the CAC 40 fail to escape a tight 8,030‑8,162‑point range for three sessions, momentum may wane. In that case, a pull‑back toward the lower edge of the long‑term upward channel around 8,014.5 points could occur. As long as that level holds, the underlying bullish structure stays intact, keeping the bias constructive. A decisive break below that support, confirmed by a close, would signal technical weakness and could usher a deeper consolidation, potentially testing major historic supports near 7,731 and 7,603 points.
Indicator Snapshot
The index trades below both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages. The MACD histogram is descending, sitting above a falling signal line. The RSI hovers around neutral, while volume is lower than the previous session.
Strategic Takeaway
Given the modest rebound near the lower bound of the long‑term upward channel, we favour selective long‑biased speculative positions while trimming short‑biased exposure. Our dynamic and investor portfolios will continue to be built around high‑probability chart signals and disciplined stock‑picking.
