CAC 40 Closes Slightly Higher on Luxury Momentum
The French CAC 40 cash index finished the session up 0.06%, trading at 8,327.88 points on a solid €4.0 bn volume.
The rally was led by the luxury sector, which outperformed expectations after Kering reported better‑than‑forecast earnings. Even though global markets have cooled from recent geopolitical tensions, investors remain selective, favoring sectors with clear earnings momentum.
US Consumer Activity Shows Early Signs of Exhaustion
American retail sales stalled in December after a modest 0.6 % rise in November, hinting that household spending may be losing steam ahead of the year‑end shopping season. Analysts are eyeing the upcoming U.S. jobs report, slated for Wednesday, which is expected to show about 68,000 new jobs in January and a stable unemployment rate near 4.4 %.
Federal Reserve Outlook
Market participants continue to price a cautious Fed stance, with the next policy meeting on 17‑18 March likely to leave rates unchanged within the 3.5 %–3.75 % band set in January.
February Futures: Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance zones: 8,338 → 8,399.5 → 8,470 → 8,541 points.
Support zones: 8,329 → 8,311 → 8,274.5 → 8,259 → 8,216 → 8,182 → 8,116 → 8,045.5 → 8,014.5 → 7,963 → 7,904 points.
Intraday bias remains bullish above the 8,298‑point mark.
Technical Snapshot
At 14:00 GMT, the future CAC 40 displayed a classic bullish gap that was quickly filled, signaling confidence among traders. A clean break above the recent high of 8,396.72 points could pave the way toward the long‑term bullish channel ceiling at 8,541 points.
In the meantime, intermediate resistance around 8,399 and 8,469 points may act as profit‑taking zones. The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating rising momentum, while the RSI has entered over‑bought territory—a reminder to stay vigilant on the short side. Volume, however, has softened compared with previous sessions, suggesting the uptrend still needs stronger participation.
What If the Market Turns Down?
A drop below the trading‑range median at 8,329 points would erode the current bullish narrative. The next critical support sits at 8,311; a breach there could test the lower channel at 8,259 points. Should the index slip further, consolidation could settle around 8,186, 8,169 and 8,140 points, with a deeper corrective floor near 8,116 ½.
Overall, we maintain an active allocation strategy, favoring dynamic stock‑picking based on clear chart signals while keeping a sizable equity exposure in both the Dynamic and Investor portfolios.