The CAC 40 cash index closed the session down 0.23%, finishing at 8,106.16 points with a turnover of €4.08 billion.
Paris’ market gave up a little ground, drifting just below the previous day’s levels. Traders digested the latest US employment report, which showed modest job growth, barely rising wages and a unemployment rate that sat slightly above expectations after the recent shutdown disruptions. The data left the broader Atlantic‑side outlook unchanged: wage pressure remained muted and the Federal Reserve received little new impetus to shift policy.
With the labor market and salary inflation staying tame, market participants turned cautious. All eyes now focus on Europe, where the European Central Bank is set to convene tomorrow. Markets will be watching for any clues on future rate moves or additional monetary support.
December Futures Outlook
Resistance levels: 8,134 – 8,174, 8,206 – 8,273.5, 8,492, 8,864 – 9,364.
Support levels: 8,104.5, 8,082.5, 8,055.5 – 8,013, 7,957, 7,925.5 – 7,901, 7,860.5, 7,829.5 – 7,778, 7,733.5 – 7,696, 7,644, 7,619 – 7,590, 7,548, 7,422 – 7,375, 7,251.5, 7,048.
Intraday, the index is holding above the 8,134‑point barrier, suggesting a short‑term bullish bias. The chart still shows a tight trading range between 8,033.5 and 8,134 points – a congestion zone that has contained the index since the rebound that began near the medium‑term alert at 7,957 points.
If the market manages a clean close above the major 8,134 resistance for at least three consecutive sessions, it could trigger a move toward the next target around 8,206 points, with the longer‑term horizontal channel ceiling at 8,232 points. A decisive break above the historic highs would reopen a broader uptrend, eyeing the 8,408‑point long‑term channel top.
Conversely, a close back inside the range, coupled with a break of the descending pivot at 8,086.5 points, would raise the risk of a downside swing toward the minor support at 8,033.5 points. As long as that level holds, the medium‑term bias stays neutral; a breach would deepen the bearish structure, potentially pulling the index down to the lower long‑term channel bound at 7,857 points. A break below the 7,696‑7,644 support zone could accelerate the decline toward the triple‑top neckline around 7,048 points.
Our current stock‑picking approach for the Dynamic and Investor portfolios leans toward a bullish scenario as the year‑end approaches, anticipating a seasonal rally supported by lingering liquidity. Nevertheless, we stay alert to macro risks – the upcoming ECB meeting and any Fed hints of rate cuts could reshape sentiment. While we maintain our positions, we are ready to trim exposure should key technical levels be invalidated or major macro‑economic threats materialise, aiming to balance upside potential with prudent risk control.