The CAC 40 cash index ended the session 0.65% lower, trading at 8,258.94 points with a robust volume of €4.082 bn.
Paris’s equity market recorded its fifth consecutive negative close. Defense shares managed a modest rally, buoyed by ongoing geopolitical tensions in several regions, but the luxury segment dragged the broader index down. A broker’s downgrade of Brunello Cucinelli sparked a chain reaction across luxury equities: Kering fell 4.21% to €288.70, LVMH slipped 2.64% to €609.20, Hermès dropped 2.06% to €2,190, and L'Oréal lost 0.59% to €384.85. Markets are questioning whether luxury houses can sustain their growth amid lingering doubts about consumer spending in the United States and China, despite Richemont’s strong fourth‑quarter sales.
Conversely, defense stocks rallied, benefiting from heightened geopolitical concerns around Greenland and the deployment of European military contingents. Thales stood out with a 2.55% gain to €261.60, followed by Airbus up 1.19% at €217.40.
February Futures Outlook
Resistance levels: 8,311 – 8,338 – 8,399.5 points.
Support zones: 8,274.5 – 8,247 – 8,216 – 8,182 – 8,116 – 8,045.5 – 8,014.5 – 7,963 – 7,904 points.
Intraday bias turns bearish when the index slips below 8,277 points.
Technical Perspective
On the 14:00 chart, the CAC 40 future appears to be pausing near its recent highs, forming a classic Wolfe Wave reversal pattern. This suggests a short‑term corrective move toward the first target around 8,075 points. A break below that level could intensify selling pressure and push the index toward the next support at 8,045.5 points. Persistent weakness beneath this zone would undermine the short‑term bullish bias and could lead to a slide toward the 7,963‑point support, with the long‑term upward channel’s lower bound near 7,904 points.
If the market rejects the Wolfe Wave, we would expect a decisive break above the dynamic resistance near 8,399.5 points. A stronger upside bounce would likely require renewed buying interest, possibly sparked by a de‑escalation of geopolitical risks or the emergence of fresh macro‑economic catalysts, allowing the index to test the upper channel edge around 8,408.5 points.
From an indicator standpoint, the index remains above its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, while MACD histograms are turning negative under the signal line. The RSI hovers near oversold territory, and trading volume has tapered compared with the previous session.
Conclusion
Given the emergence of a Wolfe Wave pattern, we advise heightened vigilance. Recent technical signals prompt a defensive stance, favoring short‑term bearish positions within our portfolios until the pattern either validates its target or is invalidated by a clear upside break.
