The CAC 40 cash index closed down 0.96% at 8,156.43 points, with a trading volume of €4.378 billion.
The Paris stock market moved in a shaky environment. President Donald Trump decided to keep the cease‑fire with Iran, but he did not set a new deadline. This stopped the threat of attacks on Iranian infrastructure, yet the lack of clear next steps kept the situation uncertain.
The United States also paused air strikes while maintaining a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Talks that were supposed to continue in Pakistan remain stalled because Iran calls the negotiations a "waste of time" until the blockade ends. In short, the market is stuck between a possible war and a possible peace, with no clear direction.
On the money side, Kevin Warsh – the person Trump wants to lead the Federal Reserve – told senators that the central bank must stay independent. He refused to give in to White House pressure and asked for a review of monetary policy to fight the still‑high inflation.
Because of these mixed signals, investors are being very careful and waiting for clearer news before making big moves.
Future May Technical Levels
Resistance (price ceiling) points: 8,343; 8,466; 8,912; 8,434.
Support (price floor) points: 8,240; 8,208; 8,190; 8,089.5; 8,066; 8,048.5; 8,019.5; 7,960; 7,843.5; 7,768.5; 7,676; 7,512.5; 6,999; 6,467.
During the day, the market stays bullish as long as it stays above 7,960 points.
Chart wise, the CAC 40 future has completed a Wolfe wave pattern by breaking the diagonal that linked points 1 and 3 at 8,235 points. The index then fell below the lower edge of a long‑term upward channel, but bounced early in the session off the median of a black Marubozu candle. A break of the 200‑day moving average at 8,090 points suggests a short‑term corrective phase, with the first target near 7,960 points. If this level holds, the bias stays upward. A fall below 7,960 would open a move toward the next Wolfe‑wave target at 7,630 points. A break of the triple‑top neckline at 6,999 points could trigger a sharp drop of more than 1,000 points.
On the other hand, if the price re‑enters the channel and pushes through the intermediate resistance at 8,208 points, it could aim for 8,466 points. Passing that level would bring the upper channel edge at 8,720 points into view, and a break there could lift the market toward a theoretical peak near 9,434 points.
In summary, we are taking profits on some positions and adding hedges to limit risk while the geopolitical picture stays unclear and a possible reversal pattern forms on the French index. We remain ready to increase short‑side bets if the consolidation turns into a decline, or to raise exposure again if the chart pattern fails.
